Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Statistical Data

This observation is from the blog of a investment pundit/daytrader (Jesse’s Café Americain).

It is about the suspicious pattern of after-the-fact revisions to the unemployment numbers. [Here’s a larger version of the Chart ].

Conspiracy theory, you say? Perhaps. But there is an undeniable pattern of after-the-fact revisions to important statistics like unemployment and CPI, and the revised figures tend to not only change the figure, but also change the “story” that the original release was supposed to be telling.

That’s ok. We all know that due to the significant estimating being done, the official UE figures are worthless anyway and besides, only count about a half or even a third of the truly unemployed.

My only point here is to be cautious of trying to try too hard to find useful indicators in a single release of monthly/quarterly data. Caveat emptor.